The bold proposals that form the European Union’s (EU) new climate
deal set the tone for the best bargain for a global agreement in Paris next
year. The decision to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 40 per cent by 2030
is ambitious in comparison with the 8 per cent reductions on a 1990 baseline
under the Kyoto Protocol. The EU was the lone participant from among the
industrialised nations. Last week’s move follows through on the offer made at
the 2013 Warsaw United Nations Conference on Climate Change where countries
agreed to make voluntary GHG emissions curbs in a post-Kyoto scenario. The
mainstay of the overall EU strategy would be the much-touted emissions trading
system (ETS). It currently covers over 11,000 power and industrial plants and
airlines and about 45 per cent of the total GHG emissions within the bloc.
Sectors within the ETS would contribute 43 per cent reductions and those outside
30 per cent by 2030. Other decisions include non-binding commitments to raise
the share of renewable sources to 27 per cent in the total energy consumption
and an equal proportion to the deployment of energy efficient technologies. The
EU deal is subject to similar commitments that may be made by other countries at
the Paris summit next year.
With some national capitals from Poland to Portugal pleading
special circumstances and others pushing to expand caps into new sectors, the
deal was significant for the distance covered than what remains to be done. The
European Trade Union Confederation, which represents about 60 million workers,
has criticised the targets as too low, that potentially could take away a
million jobs created in a low-carbon economy. At the same time, with an eye on
the 2015 climate summit, the Prince of Wales’s Corporate Leaders Group backed by
over 50 companies representing 4.5 million employees worldwide have advocated a
robust EU climate and energy policy. This is a sign of convergence of interest
between industry and employee bodies that would be crucial to clinch a global
pact in Paris. The record of the Kyoto Protocol shows that countries with a
pre-existing high technology base did not achieve the highest emissions
reductions, perhaps in view of their lock-in effects. It was the transitional
economies of the states of the former Soviet Union that registered impressive
reductions. Here may be a lesson for emerging economies such as India to make
strategic decisions with an eye on opportunities for the future. The failure of
the Copenhagen 2009 summit would undoubtedly temper expectations among EU
leaders about a global deal. But Washington has travelled some distance since
then and climate sceptics are on the back foot these days. There is thus real
potential for progress.
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